Online travel channels are expected to play an increasingly important role in the recovery of the UAE travel market, with online air penetration forecast to reach 52% by 2030, according to new research from VIDEC presented at Arabian Travel Market (ATM) 2026. The GCC & Egypt Travel Market Sizing & OTA Benchmarking Study, 2019–2030 examines the fastest-growing travel segments, market projections and distribution trends shaping the UAE and wider region, including the growing influence of Online Travel Agencies (OTAs). This shift represents a significant structural change for a market that has historically relied heavily on traditional distribution channels and direct bookings.
Market size and passenger traffic
The research forecasts that the UAE air market, measured using a demand-side methodology based on bookings made at the local point of sale (POS), will reach $6.5 billion by 2030. Growth is forecast to be driven primarily by online channels and the recovery of corporate travel demand. The findings also highlight the scale of the wider UAE aviation market. UAE airports handled approximately 160 million passengers in 2025, with low-cost carriers accounting for 35% of traffic.
Passenger volumes among low-cost carriers increased by 81%, from 31 million in 2019 to 56 million in 2025. Meanwhile, network carriers carried 103 million passengers in 2025, compared with 97 million in 2019. VIDEC also estimates the UAE to be the region’s largest air market in gross booking value (GBV) terms, valued at $55 billion in 2025 across local and global points of sale.
Competitive pressures among OTAs
Competition within the OTA market is also intensifying. According to VIDEC, MakeMyTrip maintained its leadership of the UAE air OTA market in 2026, supported by the South Asian diaspora and higher fares. Trip.com has grown rapidly to become the second-largest air OTA after entering the UAE market more recently. In the hotel OTA category, Booking.com and Agoda together account for approximately 70% of the market.
Future outlook
Virendra Jain, CEO and Co-Founder of VIDEC, said: “The UAE’s travel market opened strong in 2026. Between 2023 and 2025, Emirati carriers recorded robust growth, particularly the low-cost carriers. That momentum carried into the first two months of 2026, after which the market saw significant setbacks.”
“Capacity for full-service carriers remains 15–25% below pre-war levels, while low-cost carriers – local as well as the likes of Air India Express, flynas and IndiGo – are recovering faster and are expected to end 2026 closer to their 2025 capacity. Flying point-to-point and catering primarily to short-haul regional demand, LCCs are leading the rebound as this segment is the first to return.”
Danielle Curtis, Regional Portfolio Director, UAE, RX Global, said: “VIDEC’s findings demonstrate how technology and changing booking behaviour are reshaping the UAE travel market. As online penetration continues to increase, the relationship between travellers, OTAs and travel suppliers is evolving rapidly, creating opportunities for both established platforms and newer market entrants.”